MLB teams most likely to regress in 2026

Baseball fans and pundits are already predicting a fall for a few of last season’s surprise contenders. As the 2026 campaign dawns, a familiar chorus of doubt is aimed at the Milwaukee Brewers — and two other postseason teams from 2025: the Cleveland Guardians and the Toronto Blue Jays. Each club arrives at Opening Day with a different mix of questions about pitching, depth and sustainability.

These teams aren’t guaranteed to collapse, but their margins for error are thin. From trades that reshaped rotations to injuries and off-field controversies, the factors stacking against them are worth a closer look before the season gains momentum.

Milwaukee Brewers: Can they replace an ace and keep the streak alive?

The Brewers enter 2026 with a roster that looks familiar and fragile. After parting ways with Freddy Peralta in a trade to the Mets, Milwaukee’s rotation suddenly feels more hopeful than settled. General manager Matt Arnold prioritized long-term financial flexibility by moving Peralta before free agency, but the immediate cost is a clear drop in frontline pitching.

Rotation realities and rookie hope

• Freddy Peralta’s departure creates a leadership vacuum in the starting staff.
• Brandon Woodruff must return to pre-injury form if the Brewers want a reliable veteran anchor.
• Jacob Misiorowski is being counted on to rediscover his early-season dominance.
• Right-hander Brandon Sproat, a prospect from the Peralta deal, impressed in the Cactus League and earned a rotation spot — but rookies rarely fully replace an established ace.

There is a pattern to Milwaukee’s roster management: extract value from homegrown stars and avoid long-term commitments. That strategy has worked often enough — *they’ve reached the playoffs seven times since 2018* — but it leaves the club vulnerable if a few key parts underperform. The bullpen and back-of-the-rotation starters will need to exceed expectations for the Brewers to shrug off losing an everyday ace.

Why skeptics keep betting against Milwaukee

• Repeated trades or non-extensions of star players have made fans and analysts view each strong season as fragile.
• Reliance on reclamation projects and unproven arms increases variance over a long season.
• If the Mets turn Peralta into postseason wins, public perception will confirm the worst-case narrative.

For Milwaukee, 2026 will be a test of organizational depth and player development — not just a matter of talent on paper.

Cleveland Guardians: Injuries, legal uncertainty and a thin margin in the AL Central

The Guardians kept competing through tight budgets and roster turnover, but the operating model that brought Cleveland success also creates vulnerability. Ownership has been willing to move big names — Francisco Lindor earlier in the decade — to manage payroll, and the team has again shown it can win without handing out massive contracts.

Off-field distractions and roster stress

• Emmanuel Clase, the All-Star closer, is confronting legal issues tied to alleged pitch-fixing and gambling — a development that casts uncertainty over the back end of the bullpen.
• Josh Naylor’s financial future was navigated carefully by the front office, but that kind of brinksmanship can leave holes if replacements don’t step up.
• Hunter Gaddis is on the injured list, stretching relief options even thinner.

On the field, Cleveland’s second-half surge in 2025 erased a huge divisional deficit and felt like a triumph of momentum. Yet the roster construction for 2026 looks stretched: Steven Kwan is pegged for center field despite offensive limitations, and Rhys Hoskins projects to the cleanup slot, creating questions about run production balance. José Ramírez remains a cornerstone on a relatively team-friendly deal, but one superstar cannot compensate for thin depth all around the diamond.

Threats within the division

• The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals both have the talent and upside to challenge in the AL Central.
• Loss of pitching stability or further injuries could quickly swing a tight division race.
• Cleveland’s margin for error is smaller this year than it was during last season’s comeback.

Toronto Blue Jays: How much wear-and-tear will last season’s run leave behind?

Toronto’s 2025 campaign felt electric: they pushed deep into October and nearly reached the top of the sport. But the very success that electrified the fan base may be one of the main reasons the Blue Jays face a steeper climb this season. Extended postseason exertion and a spate of spring injuries cast doubt on whether the club can repeat.

Health problems and pitching depth concerns

• Five pitchers began the year on the injured list, including starters Trey Yesavage (rookie sensation), Shane Bieber and José Berríos.
• Key reliever Yimi García is also sidelined.
• Age is a factor: George Springer is approaching 37, and while still dangerous, he is not immune to the wear of a late-career workload.

Postseason runs often reveal where depth is shallow. The Blue Jays’ starting staff is top-heavy when healthy, but with multiple arms unavailable early, the club must either accelerate recoveries or lean on lesser options. Opponents will be circling, ready to exploit any soft spots in the rotation or bullpen.

Scenarios that could derail Toronto

1. Delay or setback in the recoveries of Bieber, Berríos or Yesavage.
2. Insufficient innings from replacement starters forcing overuse of the bullpen.
3. Regression from veteran position players whose cumulative workloads rose sharply last year.

The path back to the postseason for Toronto is narrower than it was a year ago; small slippages could carry big consequences.

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John Davis

John Davis is a sports journalist focused on the NBA, NFL, and major global championships. With seven years of live coverage, he breaks down performances and key strategies. His expertise gives you a clear view of every game and its impact.