MLB trade deadline predictions: bubble teams most likely to buy or sell

Major League Baseball’s calendar is starting to reveal a clearer picture of who’s racing toward October and who will be setting schedules for summer golf. With roughly 70 games in the books, teams are sorting themselves into contenders, pretenders and those squarely in the middle, where deadline choices become the season’s defining moments.

Trade chatter has centered on pitchers like Tarik Skubal, but the broader storyline is which clubs will be buyers at the July deadline and which will cut payroll or sit out. Some franchises are almost guaranteed to stand pat — the Rays, Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Braves, Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers are all widely expected to be in the hunt and unlikely to ship out top talent.

Which franchises almost certainly won’t sell before the deadline

• Rays
• Yankees
• Guardians
• Mariners
• Braves
• Phillies
• Brewers
• Dodgers

These clubs have shown enough consistency and depth that trading away major contributors would be counterproductive. Even if they stay quiet on the buy-side, don’t expect meaningful roster downgrades from this group.

Chicago Cubs: From hot start to tough choices — are they sellers?

Chicago opened the year on fire but has since cooled dramatically. A swing from league-leading form to a prolonged slump has put executives in a difficult spot: the talent base still exists, yet injuries and an anemic offense have pushed the team off its early pace.

The rotation has been hit hard by injuries and the offense hasn’t produced the runs needed to support a sustained push. Management will weigh the risk of adding payroll to chase a playoff spot against the reality of a roster that isn’t performing as expected. Given those factors, moves that trim payroll or target long-term advantage seem more likely than big splashes.

San Diego Padres: Will ownership transition affect deadline plans?

The Padres have been inconsistent at the plate this season, but their bullpen remains one of the game’s most reliable late-inning units. San Diego’s front office has historically leaned toward aggressive, headline-grabbing transactions — yet there’s a major caveat this year.

Sale timeline could determine activity

The team is in the middle of an ownership transition, and if the sale isn’t completed before the trade deadline, the new or current decision-makers may hesitate to approve significant spending. If the transaction closes on time, expect GM A.J. Preller to explore upgrades. If it does not, the Padres could step back and adopt a cautious posture despite having the roster pieces to improve.

Washington Nationals: Young bats shine, rotation still a question

Washington’s lineup features some of baseball’s most exciting young hitters, and that offensive core has given the team a legitimate feel of upward momentum. With promising bats setting the tone, the Nationals are more likely to add than subtract at the deadline.

Where they should invest

• Starting pitching depth — to stabilize the rotation
• Veteran innings — short-term options to bridge to prospects

The staff has struggled for consistency, and unless the front office is satisfied with internal options, they’ll be shopping for arms. Expect Washington to pursue starting pitching help to pair with their young offense, rather than trading away key position players to finance a rebuild.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Fun season, but ownership could limit deadline moves

The Pirates have been an entertaining team to follow, with an offense capable of producing and a rotation that’s held its own. But late-game breakdowns from the bullpen have repeatedly undone progress and left the club hovering in mediocrity.

Ownership history matters here. The current regime has shown reluctance to bankroll midseason spending unless the roster is clearly on the verge of postseason qualification. Unless Pittsburgh gets a sizable lead in the standings, don’t expect a heavy investment at the deadline. More likely outcomes include modest upgrades, roster tinkering, or choosing to sit out headline trades altogether.

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John Davis

John Davis is a sports journalist focused on the NBA, NFL, and major global championships. With seven years of live coverage, he breaks down performances and key strategies. His expertise gives you a clear view of every game and its impact.