NBA rookie of the year: Kon Knueppel now favorite over Cooper Flagg

When the 2025-26 NBA season tipped off, Cooper Flagg arrived in Dallas with heavy expectations. The former Duke one-and-done and the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft opened the year as the clear favorite for Rookie of the Year, but a combination of injury setbacks and an unexpected challenger have turned the race into one of the season’s most intriguing storylines.

What began as a straightforward favorite-versus-field contest has become a comeback tale and a hot betting market. The narrative now centers on two former Duke teammates—Flagg and Kon Knueppel—and a contest that will likely be decided by more than box-score numbers.

How the betting market swung: from Flagg favorite to Knueppel front-runner

Odds on DraftKings demonstrate how fast perceptions can shift in a long NBA season. Early on, Flagg was installed as a strong favorite. After several weeks, Knueppel moved from long-shot status to the top of the board.

• Early odds: Flagg opened at about -170 on DraftKings while most other rookies were listed at 10-1 or longer.
• Current market: Knueppel has climbed to roughly -180, while Flagg sits around +145. Philadelphia rookie VJ Edgecombe is a distant +12000 on the same board.
• Knueppel’s dramatic rise: Knueppel began the season near +1400 and has steadily shortened in the market as Charlotte has surged.

These shifts reflect not only individual production but the underlying factors bettors and voters weigh: availability, team success, and impact on winning.

Availability and injuries: why missed time matters in the ROTY conversation

Availability has become a central theme in the voting calculus. Cooper Flagg’s early-season foot sprain cost him multiple games and has left some voters uneasy. Even with strong per-game numbers, missing chunks of the season can be decisive.

• Flagg missed roughly a dozen of his team’s first 62 games after the sprain and a subsequent absence that kept him sidelined for eight games before a return against Orlando.
• Knueppel, by contrast, has been nearly ever-present, appearing in 62 of Charlotte’s 63 games.

Cooper Flagg has been candid about the frustration of being unable to play, describing the downtime as the toughest part of his rookie year and a chance to gain perspective. That kind of context matters for voters who often favor players who contribute not only elite per-game numbers but also steady availability.

Numbers that matter: comparing Flagg and Knueppel

Stat sheets tell only part of the story, but they offer a clear picture of what each rookie brings to his team.

• Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks): averaging roughly 20.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game while shooting near 48% from the field. Those are strong all-around numbers for a No. 1 pick.
• Kon Knueppel (Charlotte Hornets): producing about 19.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game, with an elite outside touch—216 made 3-pointers on the year at roughly 43.6% from beyond the arc.

Knueppel’s 216 made 3-pointers stand out—they lead all NBA rookies and set a new rookie record for triples in a single season. Those shots have been a driving factor in Charlotte’s offense and a signature stat separating him from other first-year players.

Team success and narrative: why Charlotte’s improvement matters

Voters often reward rookies who help transform their teams. Historically, most Rookie of the Year winners have contributed to a year-over-year team improvement, and this season fits that pattern.

• Charlotte endured a rough 4-14 start but rallied to sit just above .500, at 32-31, while pushing a multi-game win streak during the middle of the season.
• Dallas has struggled to the opposite effect, entering a recent matchup with at least 21 losses and looking unlikely to match last year’s 39-win total.

Charlotte’s turnaround gives Knueppel a compelling storyline: his efficiency and heavy volume from deep correlate directly to wins. Coaches and front-office voters who value impact on the standings are likely to favor the player who has been available every night and whose team is trending upward.

Coaching perspective and the Duke connection

The subplot of two former Duke roommates vying for the same award adds an emotional layer. Charlotte’s coach has been vocal in his praise for Knueppel’s consistency and his role in the team’s success, noting that the friendly competition between the two does not distract from Knueppel’s focus on winning.

• Coaches take note of intangibles like consistency, defense, and the ability to perform in high-leverage moments—areas where Knueppel has earned accolades this season.
• The shared background at Duke provides a natural comparison point that media and voters find irresistible, but each player’s impact on his own team remains the primary consideration.

Historical trends that favor availability and winning

A longstanding pattern in Rookie of the Year voting supports the idea that team improvement influences outcomes: in 22 of the past 25 seasons, the ROTY was on a team that increased its win total compared with the prior year. That makes Charlotte’s resurgence particularly relevant for Knueppel.

Where the race stands and what could still change

There is still time for the contest to swing again. If Flagg returns to full health and Dallas starts winning more consistently, voters may revisit their assessments. Conversely, if Knueppel continues to pour in threes and lead Charlotte to victories, his hold on the narrative and the betting markets will only strengthen.

• Scenarios that help Flagg: sustained health, an uptick in Dallas’s team success, and notable performances in marquee matchups.
• Scenarios that solidify Knueppel: continued availability, record-setting perimeter production, and maintaining a winning trajectory for the Hornets.

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John Davis

John Davis is a sports journalist focused on the NBA, NFL, and major global championships. With seven years of live coverage, he breaks down performances and key strategies. His expertise gives you a clear view of every game and its impact.