NHL playoff race: half of last year’s playoff teams could miss the cut

The race for the Stanley Cup playoffs has entered its most frantic phase with roughly three weeks left on the regular-season clock. Teams that once looked unshakable now find themselves slipping, while others that struggled early have surged into contention, setting up a tense finish where every point matters.

What looked like a predictable field at the start of the season has broken down into chaos — several 2023-24 playoff participants are in real danger of missing back-to-back postseasons, and a handful of clubs that ripped off midseason turnarounds are suddenly favorites to survive. Here’s a closer look at the contenders, the bubble teams, and the matchups that could decide who dances into April.

Surprising Teams at Risk of Missing the Playoffs

Unexpected names are flirting with elimination. Several clubs that reached the postseason last year are slipping in the standings and could be left out when the final games are played.

• Florida Panthers — The two-time defending champions have dropped into a precarious spot and are suddenly fighting to hold onto their postseason berth.
• Toronto Maple Leafs — After high expectations, Toronto’s slide has put them on the bubble in the Eastern Conference.
• Washington Capitals — Last season’s division winners are in an unfamiliar place as they try to regroup down the stretch.
• Ottawa Senators — A team that reached last year’s playoffs but now sits dangerously close to the cut line.
• New Jersey Devils — Injuries and inconsistency have left New Jersey fighting for relevance in the race.
• Winnipeg Jets — Even the Presidents’ Trophy winners from 2024-25 look vulnerable in the Western Conference.
• St. Louis Blues and Los Angeles Kings — Both teams have hits along the way that could cost them a repeat playoff trip.

Clubs Riding Momentum: Midseason Comebacks That Matter

On the flip side, a cluster of teams staged dramatic recoveries after slow starts and are now in position to take playoff slots away from last year’s qualifiers.

• Buffalo Sabres — A major turnaround has them perched near the top of the Atlantic race.
• Columbus Blue Jackets — Strong recent stretches have Columbus eyeing a Metropolitan top-three finish.
• Nashville Predators — Their revival has them in the thick of the wild-card conversation, with pivotal late-season matchups ahead.
• Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, New York Islanders — Each of these original contenders remain in the fray, though injuries and schedule difficulty shape their odds.
• Anaheim Ducks and Utah Mammoth — Surging clubs who could lock down wild-card positions if their runs continue.

Schedule Pressure: Which Remaining Games Will Decide Things?

Remaining schedules will play a massive role in who clinches and who collapses. Teams facing easier opponents late have a clear edge; others will be tested by brutal travel and tough road dates.

Critical matchups to watch

• Los Angeles Kings vs. Vancouver Canucks — The Kings have two remaining dates with lowly Vancouver, giving them a good opportunity to pick up points and chase a wild-card berth.
• Kings vs. Predators — A couple of head-to-head games against Nashville are pivotal for both clubs’ playoff math.
• Nashville vs. San Jose Sharks — Nashville’s remaining schedule includes meetings with the Sharks, who themselves could stage a late push — these matchups could swing the wild-card race.
• Boston Bruins — With seven of their final 12 games on the road and a tough slate of opponents, road fatigue and opponent quality could undermine Boston’s hold on a wild-card position.

Division-by-Division Projections and SEO-Friendly Predictions

Using current form and the remaining slate, certain divisions look relatively stable while others remain wide open. These projections aim to anticipate where teams will land when the dust settles.

Central and Pacific

• Central Division: The top three are expected to remain unchanged, with teams currently leading the division holding firm.
• Pacific Division: Similarly, the front-runners in the Pacific should keep their positions, while the Utah Mammoth and Los Angeles Kings are projected to claim the conference’s two wild-card spots.

Atlantic and Metropolitan

• Atlantic Division: Buffalo, Tampa Bay and the Montreal Canadiens look primed to stay in the top three based on momentum and remaining opponents.
• Metropolitan Division: The Carolina Hurricanes appear poised to run away with the division crown. Behind them, a chaotic scramble will likely determine the second through fourth positions.

Metropolitan Wild-Card Battle and the Crosby Factor

The Metropolitan is shaping into a dogfight where at least one of Pittsburgh, Columbus or New York could finish inside the top three — but injuries and schedules complicate things.

• Pittsburgh Penguins — They probably have the most favorable schedule left, but Sidney Crosby’s recent injury increases uncertainty around their ability to secure a high seed.
• Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Islanders — Both face tougher slates that could sap momentum during the final sprint.

Should one of those Metropolitan teams slip to fourth, that squad would still be well-positioned to steal a wild-card slot, given how the broader standings shake out.

Why Boston Looks Vulnerable for the Final Wild-Card Spot

The Bruins currently occupy a wild-card slot, but several risk factors make their hold tenuous. Their remaining opponents are strong on paper, and the Bruins will play a majority of their final dozen games away from home — a situation in which they’ve been inconsistent.

• Road-heavy finish: Seven of 12 road games left could expose the Bruins’ away shortcomings.
• Quality of opposition: The schedule features multiple difficult matchups that could sap points and confidence.
• Rising challengers: Ottawa’s resurgence positions them to capitalize if Boston drops off.

Given those elements, the odds tilt toward the Bruins fading from the final wild-card berth and the Senators slipping into that spot instead.

You might also like:

• MLB wild card race: can Mariners and Mets hold on?
• Cleveland Guardians close in on Detroit Tigers, move toward MLB playoffs
• MLB 2025 Playoffs Unveiled: Who Makes the Cut Among the Top 12 Teams?
• NHL playoff race: Sabres, Red Wings and Ducks chase drought-ending berths
• NFL playoff picture entering week 17: top seeds still unsettled

John Davis

John Davis is a sports journalist focused on the NBA, NFL, and major global championships. With seven years of live coverage, he breaks down performances and key strategies. His expertise gives you a clear view of every game and its impact.