March Madness: 3 Cinderella teams that could bust brackets

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• Money, metrics and megamodels: how the elites widened the gap
• Why Cinderella upsets keep happening in March
  • Recent history tells the story
• Three mid-major threats to watch this tournament
  • High Point: offense, momentum, and a turnover edge
  • Akron: spacing, experience, and long-range depth
  • Furman: the sleeper with a cold-blooded point guard
• Other long-shot candidates and matchup spoilers

College basketball’s balance of power keeps shifting, but the shock value of March continues to thrive. While programs with deep pockets scale up rosters and analytics staffs, smaller schools keep finding ways to disrupt bracketology and capture national attention.

This season’s field highlights both trends: an unprecedented concentration of efficiency at the top of the sport, and a steady string of underdog victories that prove one-off magic still belongs in the NCAA Tournament. Below, a closer look at where money and metrics have reshaped the landscape — and three mid-major teams that could crash the party this year.

Money, metrics and megamodels: how the elites widened the gap

Big-name programs are spending more than ever to build rosters that compete at the highest level. From coaching salaries and recruiting budgets to transfers and NIL deals, elite programs are assembling resources that resemble small-business empires more than traditional college teams.

• Kentucky reportedly invested roughly $22 million to retain members of last year’s Sweet 16 roster and add several newcomers — an example of how much schools will spend to remain competitive.
• Efficiency metrics have climbed sharply. Where KenPom once showed only one team above a +30 efficiency margin as recently as 2022, this season multiple programs exceed that benchmark.

Those analytics shifts matter: a team’s KenPom margin correlates strongly with NCAA success, and conferences that aggregate top-performing teams create durable advantages. Coaches increasingly operate like CEOs, recruiting talent, managing brand partnerships, and optimizing lineups with data-driven strategies.

Why Cinderella upsets keep happening in March

Despite the concentration of talent and money, March remains fertile ground for lower seeds. Upsets aren’t just random noise; they’re the product of stylistic mismatches, short tournament formats, and the emotional volatility unique to single-elimination play.

Recent history tells the story

• 2024: Several double-digit seeds surprised higher-ranked opponents, including an 11-seed and multiple 12- and 13-seed victories.
• 2023: Princeton reached the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed, and other low seeds like Furman and Fairleigh Dickinson made headlines.
• 2022: Saint Peter’s nearly reached the Final Four as a 15-seed, proving lower seeds can sustain a deep run.

Small-school advantages that fuel upsets include hot three-point shooting nights, unique pace-and-space lineups, disciplined turnover margins, and veteran guards who control tempo. In a one-and-done environment, those traits can neutralize raw talent gaps and produce bracket-bending results.

Three mid-major threats to watch this tournament

Below are three teams with the right mixes of momentum, mismatches and proven strengths to pull off opening-round shocks. Each matchup has a plausible path to victory — it just takes one extraordinary night.

High Point: offense, momentum, and a turnover edge

High Point arrives with a long win streak and an offense that can overwhelm opponents. They rank near the top nationally in scoring, capable of producing high-point totals quickly and repeatedly.

• Scoring: among the nation’s most prolific offenses, often topping the 85–90 points-per-game range.
• 3-point shooting: a respectable floor from deep that keeps defenses honest (team percentage north of 35%).
• Turnover margin: an elite stat for the Panthers — they force opponents into mistakes and convert those extra possessions into points.

Against a No. 5 seed, High Point’s formula is clear: push pace, limit mistakes, and convert transition opportunities. Their recent run and statistical profile make them one of the more likely 12-over-5 upsets to watch.

Akron: spacing, experience, and long-range depth

Akron’s résumé is built on veteran leadership and perimeter shooting. The Zips play fast and can string together efficient offensive stretches, using multiple reliable shooters to spread defenses thin.

• Balanced shooting: Akron features several guards and wings who can hit from distance, with top marksmen shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc.
• Experience: multiple upperclassmen who have tournament experience and understand how to manage close-game pressure.
• Matchup dynamics: their lack of size can be mitigated if the higher seed is also guard-oriented or missing key interior personnel.

In a matchup where the favorite’s star is unavailable or the style favors pace and perimeter efficiency, Akron’s collection of shooters and seasoned ball-handlers becomes dangerous.

Furman: the sleeper with a cold-blooded point guard

Furman’s profile looks modest on paper, but certain traits make them a real threat: a young standout at the point, size inside, and the ability to capitalize when opponents underestimate them.

• Playmaker: the Paladins feature a freshman floor general who has carried a heavy scoring and assist load all season.
• Frontcourt depth: they aren’t short on size, which helps control rebounding and defend the paint.
• Opponent vulnerabilities: a favorite that has struggled down the stretch or lost confidence late in the season creates an opening Furman can exploit.

Because Furman’s path depends on the higher seed underestimating their cohesion, they represent the classic 15-over-2 upset profile: a team that plays its best when given nothing to lose.

Other long-shot candidates and matchup spoilers

Beyond the three highlighted teams, multiple mid-majors could advance with the right matchup or a hot shooting night. Keep an eye on teams seeded 13–15 that bring high-efficiency three-point shooting, strong turnover defense, or a veteran backcourt.

• No. 13 and No. 14 seeds with elite perimeter efficiency can topple favorites who struggle to defend the arc.
• Programs coming off conference tournament championship runs often carry momentum and confidence into their opening NCAA game.
• Any favorite dealing with injuries, suspensions, or late-season slumps becomes vulnerable to a well-executed upset plan.

March’s single-elimination format guarantees drama. The combination of statistical advantages, matchup quirks and momentum means that even with power programs hoarding talent and analytics, the tournament still rewards bold, well-timed performances from underdogs.

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