NBA Cup: how each team can still advance

The NBA Cup has returned for a third run, and whether you love the midseason tournament or roll your eyes at another calendar gimmick, it’s already delivering moments worth watching. Early games have been a mix of surprise winners, absent stars and meaningful matchups that feel more consequential than a Tuesday night regular-season tilt.

Television choices, roster shake-ups and a compact path to the conference semifinals in Las Vegas have combined to make the Cup a sprint with stakes. Here’s a fresh look at the format, the standout matchups to track this week and the scenarios that could send each club to the Hard-Way Eight in Sin City.

How the NBA Cup actually works — what teams are playing for

The Cup compresses part of the regular season into a short, intense round-robin. Teams are grouped by conference, and the route to the conference semifinals is straightforward but unforgiving:

• Group winners advance directly to the conference semifinals in Las Vegas.
• One wild-card spot per conference goes to the best non-winner — the fourth team that advances.
• Television schedules pick the flashier matchups during the round-robin, which can skew exposure for some teams.

In short: you either top your group or hope you’re the best of the rest. That makes every Cup game carry a different weight than a typical November contest.

East to watch: Upsets, momentum and who could sneak into Vegas

Unexpected results and injuries have reshaped several Eastern groups, creating openings for teams that started fast and for favorites who have stumbled. Below are the key matchups and advancement routes worth following.

Raptors vs. Bulls — entertaining early-season duel

Toronto has been lively to start, while Chicago’s upset over a big-name opponent signaled they aren’t to be dismissed. This matchup feels like a window into whether either club can sustain the surge through group play.

Paths to the conference semifinals:

• Raptors: With the favorite in their group showing vulnerability, a win and favorable results elsewhere could put Toronto in prime position for the wild-card slot.
• Bulls: Chicago’s early signature win gives them leverage. Even a narrow road loss could be survivable if they collect wins against teams like Miami and Charlotte later in the slate.

Hawks vs. Celtics — a national spotlight test for both clubs

Boston’s rotation issues and Atlanta’s ability to win on the road make this a compelling national game. The Hawks could solidify seeding with a strong showing, while the Celtics would benefit from a dominant group-phase performance.

What each team needs:

• Hawks: Home victories and a strong point differential will be decisive. A sweep of their remaining group fixtures would likely secure top seeding.
• Celtics: Win early against the weaker opponents and exploit mismatches to build the margin that often decides group winners.

West dynamics: High-drama names and potential Ja Morant showdowns

The West’s groups are stacked in places and uneven in others. Expect storylines around ball-handling decisions, superstar matchups and young phenoms who can tilt the balance.

Grizzlies vs. Rockets — two storylines that could intersect later

Memphis and Houston bring contrasting narratives: a club wrestling with its handling of a superstar and a franchise searching for steady point guard play. Should both advance, the Cup could set up a high-profile meeting.

Ways each club can advance:

• Grizzlies: It’s a long shot, but sweeping the last stretch could force a tiebreaker or wild-card berth in a congested West group.
• Rockets: A home win against a strong opponent and at least one win on the road would give Houston a realistic chance to qualify, especially if they can surprise a top seed.

Spurs vs. Thunder — Wembanyama watch and the defending champs’ momentum

This matchup looms large for fans excited to see Victor Wembanyama against some of the league’s best. The Thunder, meanwhile, have an easier group that should allow them to cruise toward the Las Vegas bracket.

Advancement scenarios:

• Spurs: More likely to chase a wild-card slot than top the group outright. Strong home performances and a tight final game could be the ticket.
• Thunder: Placed in a relatively favorable pool, Oklahoma City looks set to advance if they maintain early-season form.

TV choices, roster gaps and why some Cup games feel curated

Broadcast partners tend to pick marquee names for coverage, which can leave meaningful, eye-catching matchups on smaller feeds. That means viewers may miss some of the most strategically important Cup games unless they seek them out.

• Prime-time slots often favor star-driven teams even when those stars are sidelined.
• Early injuries have thinned some contenders, shifting the betting lines and the narrative focus to unexpected clubs.
• For fans, the Cup’s best moments may arrive once groups resolve and the conference semifinals begin in December.

Bottom line: The Cup is producing real drama despite questions about format and timing. Keep an eye on group-point differentials, which can be the difference between a trip to Las Vegas and an early exit.

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John Davis

John Davis is a sports journalist focused on the NBA, NFL, and major global championships. With seven years of live coverage, he breaks down performances and key strategies. His expertise gives you a clear view of every game and its impact.