NBA teams poised to shock the league this season

The NBA preseason is a narrow window — a handful of quarters, cautious rotations, and headline-grabbing injury updates — but even in limited action a few teams have shown glimpses that demand a second look. Skip the hyperbole about “super-human” performances and the usual preseason noise: the early film suggests three clubs may outperform expectations this season.

These aren’t the usual suspects. Two of the three have been easy targets for criticism in recent years; the third has quietly rebuilt its identity under a new coach. Below I break down what the film tells us, who stands to gain if early trends hold, and which matchups the rest of the league should start dreading.

Boston’s depth test: Can Jaylen Brown turn Tatum’s absence into a long-term advantage?

With Jayson Tatum sidelined to start the season, Boston’s rotation looks different — and more collaborative. Early preseason minutes gave Jaylen Brown a heavier offensive burden and a license to attack the rim and create in ways we rarely saw with Tatum on the floor. The result was an energized, faster Celtics attack that leaned on ball movement instead of isolation scoring.

Why this matters: Brown has spent much of his career under Tatum’s spotlight. Freed from that role-sharing dynamic, he looked more aggressive and comfortable orchestrating offense and defending multiple positions. The Celtics also retained important supporting pieces — experienced wings and guards who can space the floor and run the offense — which makes the team less fragile than many analysts assume.

What Boston showed in the preseason

• More ball movement: Early minutes featured quicker passes and fewer long Tatum isolations.
• Different defensive profile: The team plans to play bigger around the rim at times and give young shot-blocking options a chance.
• Depth matters: Returning scorers and a legitimate point guard rotation reduce the risk of a full collapse while Tatum recovers.

Oddsmakers and pundits who peg Boston as a borderline .500 team seem to be forecasting a short Tatum absence. But if his recovery drags into the winter, a more balanced, engaged Celtics roster could easily push into the 50-win range. Short-term pain could become long-term gain if Brown keeps thriving in a larger role and the defensive pieces coalesce.

Golden State’s quiet makeover: Defense first, title hopes next?

San Francisco’s preseason hinted at a different Warriors blueprint: less predictable offense, tougher frontcourt rotations, and renewed emphasis on defense. In their opener — played without some opponent stars — Golden State flashed the kind of early-season energy that can carry over when regular-season stakes rise.

What’s changed this offseason: Frontcourt personnel tweaks and a renewed commitment to physical defense have given the Warriors the potential to disrupt big offenses in the West. When Stephen Curry is healthy, Golden State’s blend of shooting and switched defensive looks still makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the conference.

Why the Warriors should worry contenders

• Switchability: Draymond Green remains the defensive fulcrum capable of orchestrating help and rotations.
• Interior toughness: Additions and depth moves aim to reduce easy looks at the rim and force opponents into contested shots.
• Playoff geometry: The Warriors’ experience and star power mean they’re a matchup many teams would rather avoid in a seven-game series.

Nate Silver-level forecasting in the West has focused on teams like the Thunder and Nuggets, while attention also swirls around the Rockets’ offensive upgrades and Dallas’ emerging talent. But the early signs point to Golden State being a deeper playoff threat than many give them credit for — a squad that could derail title hopes for higher-seeded teams if matchups fall their way.

Portland’s defense-first blueprint and the rise of Shaedon Sharpe

Under Chauncey Billups, the Trail Blazers are growing into a team identity built on pressure defense and athletic perimeter play. Their preseason lineup looked like a collection of long, quick defenders who can switch on the perimeter and contest shooters — the kind of group that frustrates offensive rhythm and creates transition chances.

Portland’s frontcourt mobility, plus a developing rim protector behind them, gives the roster a two-level defensive presence. Offensively, retaining Shaedon Sharpe after a trade that sent away a veteran backcourt piece looks like a smart bet: he has shown steady scoring growth each season and could be on the verge of a breakout.

Building blocks of a surprise Blazers team

• Perimeter length: Multiple wings who can pressure the ball and recover to shooters.
• Defensive coaching: Billups’ approach emphasizes accountability and rotations — and the team bought into it.
• Young playmakers: Scoot Henderson’s presence and mentorship from veteran guards create upside in the backcourt.

Last season’s jump in wins showed Portland isn’t static. With a few smart roster moves and players like Sharpe trending up — he’s moved from a bench scorer to a likely 20-point-per-game option if development continues — the Blazers could climb the standings. In a loaded Western Conference, finishing high enough to avoid early elimination would already be a victory; sneaking into the play-in or overtaking middling teams like the Suns or Kings wouldn’t shock anyone paying attention to their defensive metrics.

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John Davis

John Davis is a sports journalist focused on the NBA, NFL, and major global championships. With seven years of live coverage, he breaks down performances and key strategies. His expertise gives you a clear view of every game and its impact.