Pauline Hanson surging in Australian polls: what’s driving her rise

Australia’s political landscape is shifting beneath the feet of Canberra’s insiders. A long-time outsider has suddenly become the story that dominates headlines, forcing mainstream parties and commentators to confront a widening disconnect between elected elites and a restless electorate.

Pauline Hanson — the red-haired senator from Queensland who has long trafficked in blunt, culture-warring rhetoric — now occupies center stage in public life in a way few predicted. Her party, One Nation, is riding a surge in public support that has left traditional conservative ranks scrambling and left-leaning politicians bracing for a volatile electoral future.

From marginal figure to poll-topper: the trajectory of Pauline Hanson and One Nation

Hanson’s role in federal politics stretches back decades, but her recent climb has been unusually rapid. After winning only about six percent of the national vote in the election roughly a year and a quarter ago, One Nation has leaped into serious contention. Current polling places the party in striking proximity to Labor, with the Coalition much further behind.

Newspoll figures have shown One Nation polling around 30 percent, matching Labor, while the Liberal-National Coalition languishes near 19 percent. Hanson herself now ranks highly in measures of preferred prime minister — a remarkable turnaround for someone long treated as a political pariah by the establishment.

Key moments that accelerated the rise

Flashpoints that put Hanson back in the spotlight

• National shock and debate following the Bondi attack on a Jewish gathering, which sharpened attention on extremism and security concerns.
• The October 2023 referendum on a constitutional Aboriginal Voice — defeated by a roughly 60–40 margin — which exposed deep fault lines on identity and constitutional change.
• Public unease about immigration patterns, especially the growth in temporary visa categories such as student and other short-term arrivals.
• Longstanding grievances over pandemic management, energy and cost-of-living pressures tied to decarbonization policies, and cultural battles over gender identity and social norms.

What voters say they want: the grievances fueling support

One Nation’s voters are not casual swing voters; many have switched allegiance from established parties and show little appetite for returning. Their grievances tend to cluster around a few recurring themes:

• Perceived elite detachment: A sense that policy decisions are made by people who neither live under nor respect the consequences of those choices.
• Immigration and assimilation concerns: Fears about social cohesion, cultural compatibility and strains on public services.
• Economic insecurity: Worries about housing affordability, stagnant incomes and the long-term effects of policy on small business and jobs.
• Cultural and moral change: Backlash against rapid social change, from pandemic-era mandates to debates over transgender healthcare.

Why the major parties are struggling to command trust

Both Labor and the Coalition have been seen as part of the same managerial class that many voters blame for missteps. That perception is sharpened by a series of policy choices and political moments that undermined trust:

• Both sides were in office during the disruption of the Covid years, leaving a residue of resentment about restrictions and government reach.
• Support for Net Zero targets and the transition to lower emissions has been politically costly, associated with higher energy prices and vulnerable industries.
• On immigration, despite past hardline measures, the growth in alternative visa channels has fueled a sense that rules can be gamed.
• Perceived deference to cultural elites on issues such as gender and identity politics has alienated socially conservative and economically anxious voters alike.

Electoral math: how Australia’s voting system complicates Hanson’s path to power

Australia’s preferential (instant runoff) voting system makes direct leaps to the premiership difficult for a minor party leader, even when polling is strong. Under the rules, a candidate needs to build broad second- and third-preference support across diverse electorates.

One Nation’s current position is powerful in public opinion, but translating that into a majority government is complex. Anthony Albanese’s Labor still appears to be the most likely party to win a third term in 2028, particularly if it can pick up preference flows from the Greens and other minor parties.

International echoes: comparing Hanson to other populist figures

Hanson’s rise sits alongside the global trend of insurgent leaders who channel voter frustration. Comparisons are often made to figures such as Nigel Farage in the UK, Marine Le Pen in France, and Donald Trump in the US. While the issues differ — Europe and Brexit, America’s culture wars — the pattern is similar: a political class accused of being tone-deaf and an outsider who claims to speak for the overlooked majority.

Media, money and controversy: the recent headlines

Hanson’s travel and media appearances have kept her in the headlines. A recent trip to the UK, partly supported by commercial television and a prominent donor, drew intense scrutiny. An interview that some critics read as an endorsement of exclusionary immigration policies provoked fresh outrage — a backlash that, paradoxically, appeared to boost her support.

• Funding and backers: The role of wealthy supporters has become part of the story, raising questions about financial influence and political independence.
• Media encounters: Interviews on controversial platforms and appearances that play to cultural grievances have amplified Hanson’s profile.
• Public reaction: Return events, including an ostentatious reception at a business gathering in Perth, have underscored her ability to mobilize visible, vocal support.

What populism offers and its limits in solving real problems

The appeal of One Nation is partly emotional: it offers clarity, anger and a diagnosis for complex ills. Populist narratives turn structural and technical problems — like productivity stagnation, demographic change, housing shortages and energy investment gaps — into stories of betrayal by elites.

That simplification is politically potent but policy-wise incomplete. Structural reforms to lift productivity, reform housing markets, and adapt to demographic realities require detailed, often difficult trade-offs that do not fit neatly into the moral narratives populism relies on. Still, the appeal of straightforward answers is a central reason why parties like One Nation find receptive audiences.

Political consequences and the road ahead

Australia’s political map is being redrawn around a new axis of insider versus outsider. This shift reshapes how debates over immigration, culture, and economic policy are being framed in public life. Whether this moment leads to durable policy change or a cyclical reaction that corrodes trust further remains uncertain.

Nick Cater is a Sydney-based columnist for The Australian and a regular contributor to spiked.

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Robert Johnson

Robert Johnson is a dedicated columnist focusing on political and social debates. With twelve years in editorial writing, he provides nuanced, well‑argued perspectives. His commentaries invite you to form your own views and engage in critical issues.