U.S. Open: five golfers most likely to win their first major

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• Viktor Hovland — Accuracy and Ball-Striking That Suit Shinnecock Hills
  • Why he’s a contender
• Tyrrell Hatton — Course Experience and Resilient Form
  • Key reasons to back him
• Si Woo Kim — Consistency Machine with Iron Accuracy
  • What makes him a sneaky pick
• Russell Henley — A Veteran Profile Built for U.S. Open Setups
  • Strengths that matter at Shinnecock
• Tommy Fleetwood — Proven at Shinnecock and Hungry for a Major
  • Why Fleetwood could finally break through

Major championships have a way of rewiring expectations. One week a player is a barely whispered name; the next, they’re standing over a long putt that changes everything. Upsets and surprise runs are built into the fabric of the U.S. Open, where course setup and temperament often trump star power.

With Shinnecock Hills hosting the championship, the question isn’t just who is the best player on paper — it’s who matches the course’s demands and is peaking at the right moment. Below are five compelling candidates to break through for a first U.S. Open major, each chosen for recent form, statistics that matter at Shinnecock, and real upside as a potential dark horse.

Viktor Hovland — Accuracy and Ball-Striking That Suit Shinnecock Hills

Hovland is among the tour’s most talented young stars, and while his major record hasn’t yet included a win, he’s posted several top-10 finishes that suggest the pieces are there. His game profile aligns well with what Shinnecock typically demands: precise tee-to-green play and improved short-game touch.

Why he’s a contender

• Driving accuracy: Hovland ranks near the top of the PGA Tour in finding fairways, a huge advantage at a layout where rough and angles matter.
• Approach play: He’s been solid on approach shots, often leaving himself manageable birdie looks or par-saving chances.
• Improving around the green: Recent gains in chipping and scrambling make him less vulnerable at penal U.S. Open roughs and tight lies.

Recent finishes, including a strong showing in Canada and a top result at Oakmont last year, indicate he can contend at difficult venues. If his putter behaves and he avoids late-round volatility, Hovland has the tools to be in contention down the stretch.

Tyrrell Hatton — Course Experience and Resilient Form

Hatton has been knocking on the door of major glory for a while. He’s shown he can handle testy conditions and grind out rounds when scoring chances are scarce. Shinnecock’s seaside complexity favors players comfortable with wind, tight approach windows, and firm greens — all areas in which Hatton has proven competence.

Key reasons to back him

1. Strong major pedigree: multiple top finishes in recent majors point to a player who raises his level when it matters most.
2. Recent win on a high-quality course: a victory at Valderrama underlines his comfort on challenging links-style tracks.
3. Past Shinnecock success: he finished near the top in the last U.S. Open at Shinnecock, with play that improved as the tournament progressed.

Hatton’s temperament — his ability to fight through adversity and patch together pars — is as valuable as any stat. If the leaderboard compresses and the tournament becomes a test of patience, he’s one of the players you’d want in the final group.

Si Woo Kim — Consistency Machine with Iron Accuracy

One of the quietest stories of the season is Si Woo Kim’s remarkable consistency. He’s been steady week in and week out, stringing together cuts made and top finishes at a rate that suggests his game is dialed.

What makes him a sneaky pick

• Reliability: Kim has been making cuts every tournament and converting that into numerous top-25s and a couple of runner-up finishes.
• Elite driving accuracy and approach stats place him among the best at finding the right spots off the tee and hitting playable wedges into greens.
• Top-tier bogey avoidance — an invaluable trait at a U.S. Open where pars are often the winning currency.

The main caveat has been his putting in majors, but a course like Shinnecock rewards controlled ball-striking and conservative play. If his putter loosens up even slightly, Kim could turn his season-long form into a serious major threat.

Russell Henley — A Veteran Profile Built for U.S. Open Setups

Henley doesn’t always grab headlines, but his major résumé is quietly impressive. He’s repeatedly shown he can post low scores in tough conditions and has a combination of strengths that mirror what typically wins at the U.S. Open.

Strengths that matter at Shinnecock

• Elite fairway finding: Henley often leads the field in driving accuracy, giving him the baseline advantage on penal setups.
• Top-tier scrambling and bogey avoidance keep him afloat when approach shots miss the mark.
• Recent form includes a tournament win and multiple top finishes in majors, demonstrating both confidence and consistency.

Henley’s profile — accurate off the tee, steady with his irons, and excellent at minimizing damage — ticks many of the boxes for a Shinnecock contender. He’s the kind of under-the-radar pick that can pay off for bettors or fantasy players looking for value.

Tommy Fleetwood — Proven at Shinnecock and Hungry for a Major

Fleetwood is a name that resurfaces every time Shinnecock enters the conversation, thanks to a memorable final round there in 2018. He’s the prototype of a player who has both history with the course and the well-rounded game needed for links-influenced setups.

Why Fleetwood could finally break through

1. Track record at Shinnecock: he showed he can go low there in a final round, proving the course fits his style.
2. Strong recent finishes at marquee events signal he’s in form and capable of contending on big stages.
3. Excellent short-game metrics and consistent iron play make him a threat when scoring windows open.

Experience and composure are Fleetwood’s advantages; he’s been in contention before and knows how to manage a major week. If he combines that course knowledge with clean ball-striking, he’ll be one to watch as the trophy chase tightens.

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