USMNT: six things that must happen to win the World Cup

The U.S. men’s national team arrives at this World Cup as a genuine longshot, priced roughly 50-to-1 by many bookmakers. That kind of underdog status doesn’t make headlines the same way preseason favorites do, but it creates a pressure-free runway—exactly the kind of environment that can produce a surprise run deep into a knockout tournament.

Rather than debating whether winning the trophy is realistic, a more useful exercise is to map what would have to go right. The pieces Mauricio Pochettino has assembled — tactical daring, a handful of high-ceiling players, and a mix of youth and experience — suggest a plausible road map for a shocker. Below are the distinct conditions that would increase the Americans’ chances of pulling off a classic Cinderella story at the World Cup.

How low expectations could become an advantage for the USMNT

Public skepticism can be a stealth asset. After recent underwhelming tournament results, fan expectations for the U.S. squad remain muted. That national patience gives Pochettino and his players breathing room to experiment and to play without the crushing weight of expectation.

When the media narrative is mainly about growth rather than immediate glory, teams can:

• Take tactical risks they might otherwise avoid.
• Give younger players minutes in high-pressure situations.
• Allow chemistry to develop without overreacting to a single result.

Lower public pressure can translate into more daring on the field—and tournaments are often decided by teams willing to gamble on smart, unconventional approaches.

Pochettino’s freedom: why a coach with less to lose could benefit the team

Mauricio Pochettino’s international stint has drawn criticism for his apparent detachment from the job’s emotional weight. But that detachment might be functional. Knowing his longer-term job security isn’t hanging entirely on the USMNT’s World Cup performance allows Pochettino to focus on maximizing match-to-match opportunities rather than on preserving reputation.

Tactical implications

• Greater willingness to change formations mid-tournament.
• Riskier substitutions to chase games or protect leads.
• Trusting form players even if they lack national-team pedigree.

A coach who isn’t afraid to experiment can unlock unexpected combinations and provoke opponents who have prepared for a more conservative American side.

Gio Reyna as the creative spark the USMNT needs

Including Gio Reyna on the 26-man roster was a clear signal: Pochettino wants dynamic playmaking in the middle of the park. Reyna’s club form has been inconsistent, but his technical ability and vision remain rare assets for the United States.

If the Americans are going to break through elite defenses, they will likely need moments of individual brilliance in tight spaces. Reyna offers that possibility by:

• Creating passing lanes between opposition lines.
• Unlocking defenses with late runs from midfield.
• Combining with wide forwards to produce overloads in the final third.

Reyna’s tournament could be the difference between narrow losses and decisive wins—provided he finds rhythm and confidence early.

Fitness essentials: Pulisic, Robinson and Richards must be at peak form

Availability of key players will likely determine how far the U.S. can go. Christian Pulisic remains the most consistent attacking outlet when healthy; Antonee Robinson is a world-class left back in form; Chris Richards anchors the back line when fit. All three have carried nagging issues into the pre-tournament period.

Key fitness checklist

1. Consistent match minutes to build sharpness.
2. No lingering pain that limits full-range play.
3. Clear recovery plan between games, especially in knockout stages.

The Americans’ ceiling rises dramatically if these starters stay healthy for the bulk of the competition. Their presence stabilizes both defense and attack and gives Pochettino tactical flexibility.

Penalty resilience: why Matt Freese matters more than you think

Knockout tournaments live and die by narrow margins, and penalty shootouts are an unavoidable reality. Matt Freese’s performance in recent international action—particularly a penalty clinic in a crucial quarterfinal—suggests he could be an X-factor.

While he hasn’t yet joined the ranks of the world’s elite pen-savers, Freese has shown the temperament and technique to make decisive stops. For a team that may be underdogs in multiple knockout matches, a reliable goalkeeper in shootouts is a practical path to progress.

The unpredictable element: fortunate bounces and external breaks

Even with perfect planning, an underdog run requires a few strands of luck. That luck can take many shapes:

• An opponent missing a key player through injury or suspension.
• A controversial referee call that shifts momentum.
• A last-minute bounce leading to an improbable goal.

These moments are by nature uncontrollable, but preparedness matters. The USMNT must stick to its game plan and be ready to exploit favorable swings when they occur. Success in a major tournament often hinges on being opportunistic as much as it does on skill.

You might also like:

• Giovanni Reyna poses key selection challenge for Mauricio Pochettino after USMNT win
• Gio Reyna skipping MLS could be a costly career mistake
• 2026 FIFA World Cup: key storylines to watch as tournament kicks off
• Mark DeRosa should take more accountability for Team USA
• 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals: teams, schedule, key matchups and how to watch

John Davis

John Davis is a sports journalist focused on the NBA, NFL, and major global championships. With seven years of live coverage, he breaks down performances and key strategies. His expertise gives you a clear view of every game and its impact.